Why The Independence Bowl Needs BYU to Lose
The Independence Bowl is in a predicament as one BYU loss can mean a drastically different bowl
The season is looking more and more like a reckoning for the playoff as this past Saturday, Cincinnati strengthened their Playoff resume with a two-score win on the road against Notre Dame. Cincinnati was notably left out of the Playoff during last year’s strange pandemic season and are hoping two years of being in the conversation are enough for a bid.
Quietly, on the other side of the country, BYU is building a similar resume, starting 5-0 with wins over Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State. The Cougars still have games against USC, Virginia, Baylor, and Washington State and will likely make the New Year’s Six with an undefeated record.
Strangely enough, their bowl partners in Shreveport may want the Cougars to lose. The Independence Bowl has been in freefall after losing their tie-ins with both the SEC and ACC. In response, the bowl was able to string together alternating tie-ins with BYU, Army, the PAC-12, and C-USA.
This move was one of survival could not have prepared them for the circumstance that may await them come December.
This year may be one of the strongest years for the Group of Five ever, as there is a legitimate chance three teams finish undefeated in Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, and wait for it…UTSA.
The Roadrunners are the talk of C-USA with a 5-0 record and road wins over Illinois and Memphis. The Roadrunners overcame a 21-0 deficit to beat the traditional AAC power in the Liberty Bowl.
The path is clear for a 12-0 finish as UAB looks to be in a down year and no team in the East division looks dominant. Even more shocking, the Roadrunners’ toughest test for the rest of the season may be a road game on November 6th vs UTEP who is 4-1 right now. Yes, I said it.
Even with a 13-0 record, UTSA faces significant obstacles to the New Year’s Six. Cincinnati is the obvious one, but with one loss, they still may make the New Year’s Six over Coastal Carolina and UTSA.
Coastal Carolina rides last year’s momentum and sits at #15 in the AP Poll, in second position for the New Year’s Six. Western Michigan is 4-1 with only a loss to #9 Michigan and a win over potential ACC Coastal champion, Pitt. With a resume like this, the CFP could easily choose the Broncos over UTSA for a New Year’s Six bid in the event of meltdowns by Coastal and Cincinnati.
All of this shows that a 13-0 UTSA’s bowl ceiling will likely be one of Conference USA’s better bowl games. While the conference may want to keep the Roadrunners in Texas for either the First Responder, Military, or Frisco Bowls, they cannot pass up the opportunity to play a ranked, 11-1 BYU.
The matchup would easily be one of the more anticipated bowls of the season and would draw well in all likelihood, as BYU is a religious brand and UTSA is a manageable seven-hour drive from Shreveport.
However, an undefeated BYU could divert both teams from Shreveport. With a resume of six wins over Power Five teams, including a potential conference champion in Arizona State, the CFP would be hard-pressed to not give BYU a New Year’s Six bid.
Lacking BYU as an opponent, Conference USA may go the safe route and send a 6-6 or 7-5 Louisiana Tech team to Shreveport or may send a 9-3 or 8-4 UAB team. Both would be solid choices but have nothing on an undefeated UTSA team.
Of course, the bowl would have to pick a replacement for BYU, which would likely come from a Group of Five conference with extra teams. Even worse, the bowl may have to pick a 5-7 team as a shortage is likely with 84 teams needed for the 42 non-national championship bowls.
A matchup between UTSA and BYU would offer the Independence Bowl a chance for rejuvenation. The bowl has long been in decline being at the bottom of both the ACC and SEC’s bowl order the past six years and now having to scrounge together a Frankenstein-like agreement in this current cycle.
All eyes would be on Shreveport on the opening Saturday of Bowl Season for UTSA-BYU on ABC. However, the Independence Bowl needs to strangely root for a late-season BYU meltdown for this to happen.