The Big Winner of Conference Realignment is...New Mexico State?
The Big 12's decision to stay intact could bring much needed stability in Las Cruces.
College football has been in a whirlwind the past few weeks thanks to Texas and Oklahoma. Rumors abounded with even Michigan and Ohio State implicated in a move to the SEC. The Pac-12, ACC, and Big Ten even formed an “alliance.”
The latest dominoes fell or stayed upright when the Pac-12 announced it would stay at 12 members for the near future on Thursday. In response, the Big 12 added four schools, three from the AAC and BYU from the West Coast/independence.
Here is where New Mexico State comes in. The Aggies have struggled as an independent for the past three seasons both with travel and scheduling games in general. The WAC’s FCS return brought glimmers of hope, but the conference is years away from an FBS promotion.
The most beneficial paths to a conference for the Aggies would be the Mountain West or waiting for the WAC to jump to FBS. Entry into the Mountain West hinges on Boise State leaving for the American, of course. The Mountain West and Boise State have endured an unhappy marriage, as the league’s seemingly preferential treatment towards the Broncos caused conflict in the league.
Boise State’s departure would leave the Mountain West at an uneven 11 schools. The options available range from UTEP, New Mexico State, and even Rice. Rice makes little sense geographically but would provide a presence back in Texas and in one of the largest markets in the country on top of that.
However, UTEP and New Mexico State are nearly interchangeable candidates as both are in the league’s footprint. While both have struggled on the gridiron, New Mexico State would significantly improve Mountain West men’s basketball.
If the Mountain West chooses UTEP as a replacement instead of New Mexico State, they still would be a solid candidate in Conference USA, for the same reason of increasing their men’s basketball.
The caveat is the possibility of the conference choosing to shrink their geographical sprawl if they lose UTEP. However, I’ll touch upon this later.
Another option would be the Sun Belt, who this past Thursday announced intentions to add two teams.
While it is unlikely that the Sun Belt desperately asks its old flame to return, the conference could gain some Conference USA expatriates opening the door for the Aggies.
Current Conference USA members are not only targets for AAC expansion, but Sun Belt expansion as mentioned above. A logical scenario could be the conference losing two schools each to the American and Sun Belt.
UTSA and North Texas are prime candidates out west for the American to replace Houston and maintain a solid presence in Texas. Adding New Mexico State in response gives UTEP a travel partner to replace either school.
In the case Conference USA loses four schools, the easiest solution seems to be adding Liberty and New Mexico State. Liberty’s candidacy for conferences has long been considered problematic, but Conference USA may be desperate enough to pursue the Flames.
The case also exists for the conference to shrink their sprawling footprint in this round of realignment, decreasing New Mexico State’s chances. Yet, if the Big 12 showed the sporting world anything it was that there is strength in numbers, no matter how geographically spread out a conference’s own depth makes them.
While most people will pay the most attention to the AAC’s next move, the most intriguing storyline of realignment is whether college football’s vagabond programs finally find a home. New Mexico State persevered and waited and now their patience may pay off.